WI: The Low Countries flooded during the Thirty Years' War

[I_am_Unk]

Possible History recently did a video in a similar (if not the same) scenario and it just sparked in me some interest in this idea and wanted to read more about it other than from a Youtuber. However, never found something with these specific circumstances, sadly. So, I figured, I might as well ask myself.
Well... without magic it can possibly happen, even if not probable, so I figure it's not ASB. (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).
Yeah, whatever. What if the dikes exploded or something and the Low Lands are flooded during the Thirty Years' War? Lots of people die, obviously, but what now.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The Dutch are even more destroyed than IOTL after the war but apart from minor border changes I doubt something massive would happen, but it also depends on how bad is the flooding and if there is an adequate response to the crisis.

 

[I_am_Unk]

The Dutch are even more destroyed than IOTL after the war but apart from minor border changes I doubt something massive would happen, but it also depends on how bad is the flooding and if there is an adequate response to the crisis.

Hmmm. I guess we could go with the idea to make it as bad and as permanent as it can possibly be? What happens if basically all the area below sea level is just swallowed into the sea, for example?
The Netherlands, if memory doesn't fail me, already were a pretty important part of European trade too. So, what happens to the rest of Europe?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Hmmm. I guess we could go with the idea to make it as bad and as permanent as it can possibly be? What happens if basically all the area below sea level is just swallowed into the sea, for example?
The Netherlands, if memory doesn't fail me, already were a pretty important part of European trade too. So, what happens to the rest of Europe?

The Netherlands decline much sooner in favor of Britain however it shouldn't be excluded that the Spanish would be able to regain control over much of the land depending on when the flooding happens and the Portuguese could use the occasion to get back what they lost if the Dutch are completely destroyed.

 

[Lils <3]

Well, in 1570, the All Saints' Flood claimed upwards of 20.000 lives and contemporary reporters claimed that 80% of the country was under water. The results were, of course massive loss of human life, devastation of farm land and the belief that god was punishing the Spanish. Many Dutch protestants took it as a message to keep fighting the Spanish and two years later the Geuzen captured Zeeland and Holland which were some of the worst affected regions.

The most obvious result of a new flood would be, a whole lot of people die, but the most serious long term effect would probably be based on where the flood hits. If the floods hit the Spanish southern Netherlands, then the Dutch rebels will have their beliefs reinforced by another "message from god" and land poorly effected by the floods are more likely to fall into Dutch control. If the flood hits the Dutch Republic however, they'll either interpret it as god telling them to fight even harder, or they opposite will happen and the catholics will believe that god is punishing the protestant rebels. If it hits the entire netherlands, I would imagine the protestants would take it as a message and likely make gains in the worst affected lands, mirroring the gains they made in 1572. Either way, whichever side is hit worse is not only losing vital land and resources, they're effectively being condemned by god himself, and thus, probably won't fair too well in the war.

Long term consequences of the flood itself, not including the consequences of how it effects the war, are probably not that terrible, massive loss of life and farmland aside, the Dutch, whichever Dutch those may be, will likely bounce back, and seriously reconsider their flood defences.
Just my guess.

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

Didn't the Dutch themselves have a last-resort plan to flood the country themselves?

 

[I_am_Unk]

The Netherlands decline much sooner in favor of Britain however it shouldn't be excluded that the Spanish would be able to regain control over much of the land depending on when the flooding happens and the Portuguese could use the occasion to get back what they lost if the Dutch are completely destroyed.

Do you think that perhaps the survivors will disperce to the neighboring countries (even Britain)? If the Dutch Republic is completely destroyed by it, just how long is it going to take for the area to recover?
Also, what happens to the Dutch East Indies Company ITL? And if I remember correctly, Portugal still have some holdings in Asia they later lost to the Dutch (Sri Lanka), does it mean that in this timeline they might be keeping it?
Another thing about Portugal, they relied on the Dutch to fund their Sugar Cycle in Brazil, since they selled it to them so that the Dutch could refine it and sell to other people. It was the rise of the Netherlands that broke the Sugar Cycle in Brazil, when they invaded the Northeastern Region and took over the Sugar Trade, creating a crisis in Portugal and its colonies in America.

Well, in 1570, the All Saints' Flood claimed upwards of 20.000 lives and contemporary reporters claimed that 80% of the country was under water. The results were, of course massive loss of human life, devastation of farm land and the belief that god was punishing the Spanish. Many Dutch protestants took it as a message to keep fighting the Spanish and two years later the Geuzen captured Zeeland and Holland which were some of the worst affected regions.

The most obvious result of a new flood would be, a whole lot of people die, but the most serious long term effect would probably be based on where the flood hits. If the floods hit the Spanish southern Netherlands, then the Dutch rebels will have their beliefs reinforced by another "message from god" and land poorly effected by the floods are more likely to fall into Dutch control. If the flood hits the Dutch Republic however, they'll either interpret it as god telling them to fight even harder, or they opposite will happen and the catholics will believe that god is punishing the protestant rebels. If it hits the entire netherlands, I would imagine the protestants would take it as a message and likely make gains in the worst affected lands, mirroring the gains they made in 1572. Either way, whichever side is hit worse is not only losing vital land and resources, they're effectively being condemned by god himself, and thus, probably won't fair too well in the war.

Long term consequences of the flood itself, not including the consequences of how it effects the war, are probably not that terrible, massive loss of life and farmland aside, the Dutch, whichever Dutch those may be, will likely bounce back, and seriously reconsider their flood defences.
Just my guess.

If the loss of life is too great, do you think this might significantly sent back the formation another Dutch state in Europe? Wound there be even enough of a population for the Netherlands to bounce back eventually or would this effectively erase the "Dutch" identity from the rest of history?
About religion, I could see the Protestants taking a moral hit with this flood, at least in the Low Countries. Would that be true for other Protestant countries or more specifically Calvinist ones?

Didn't the Dutch themselves have a last-resort plan to flood the country themselves?

That is correct. I wonder what were they planing after doing that :v

 

[Lils <3]

If the loss of life is too great, do you think this might significantly sent back the formation another Dutch state in Europe? Wound there be even enough of a population for the Netherlands to bounce back eventually or would this effectively erase the "Dutch" identity from the rest of history?

erm, no, not at all, unless it was a magical level apocalypse flood the Dutch would easily bounce back. It might significantly damage their economy in the short term, but the Dutch were mostly a trade power. At most it would prevent them becoming a colonial powerhouse, but erasing the Dutch identity would not be possible really. Unless the flood specifically targeted the Dutch Republic, I also can't see it leading to the collapse of Dutch independence, I think quite the opposite. Unless it specifically avoided the Spanish Netherlands, I think it would allow the Dutch protestants to make more gains.

About religion, I could see the Protestants taking a moral hit with this flood, at least in the Low Countries. Would that be true for other Protestant countries or more specifically Calvinist ones?

Once again, even if the floods specifically hit the Dutch Republic, I don't think religion would be affected at all, especially not outside the lowlands. Considering how the last flood drove the protestants to victories in Zeeland and Holland, I'd imagine, the protestants would if anything, make gains into the areas of the catholic Spanish Netherlands affected by flooding.

 

[I_am_Unk]

erm, no, not at all, unless it was a magical level apocalypse flood the Dutch would easily bounce back. It might significantly damage their economy in the short term, but the Dutch were mostly a trade power.

Ah, sorry, I got carried away haha. Apocalyptic magic flood, you say? You gave me an idea for a story I'm writing just now.

Unless the flood specifically targeted the Dutch Republic, I also can't see it leading to the collapse of Dutch independence, I think quite the opposite. Unless it specifically avoided the Spanish Netherlands, I think it would allow the Dutch protestants to make more gains.

In that case, it might be a possibility. The Spanish part or the Netherlands is going to be, at worst, affected at the northern most tip of Flanders, while the Netherlands might see more than half of its territory affected by flooding (these are the territories below sea level previously talked about above).

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Do you think that perhaps the survivors will disperce to the neighboring countries (even Britain)? If the Dutch Republic is completely destroyed by it, just how long is it going to take for the area to recover?

They would first go in the nearby territories as refugees, going to Britain is significantly harder than going to another part of the Low-Lands.
If a good part of their land is flooded then recovery will take a while which the Dutch's enemies will exploit.

Also, what happens to the Dutch East Indies Company ITL? And if I remember correctly, Portugal still have some holdings in Asia they later lost to the Dutch (Sri Lanka), does it mean that in this timeline they might be keeping it?

Portugal would probably have a better chance however the Dutch should be able to recover and bounce back, I doubt they would be destroyed forever by the flood.

Another thing about Portugal, they relied on the Dutch to fund their Sugar Cycle in Brazil, since they selled it to them so that the Dutch could refine it and sell to other people. It was the rise of the Netherlands that broke the Sugar Cycle in Brazil, when they invaded the Northeastern Region and took over the Sugar Trade, creating a crisis in Portugal and its colonies in America.

Again I doubt the Dutch would be destroyed forever, they should be able to recover in a decade.